Elections Are Here!

By the time this newsletter reaches you, Americans will have cast their votes for the next president. The outcome may bring clarity, or it may unfold over days if counts continue. As we await final results, it's a powerful reminder of the significance of every single vote in shaping the nation’s future.
-The Editors

🏥Health Watch:

Rewinding Time with a 'Mind Over Age' Experiment

Imagine you’re 75, living life as though it’s 1989 again – listening to your favorite tunes, dressing like you did back then, and chatting about “current” news like it just happened. This isn’t a quirky time-travel movie; it’s the setup for a fascinating study exploring whether changing the way we think about aging can actually change how we age!

In this study, a group of people aged 75+ went on a one-week retreat outside Milan, Italy. Some participants lived as though they were back in 1989, surrounded by old-school decor, listening to music from that time, and even discussing events from ‘89 as if they were happening right now. Researchers call this the “Counterclockwise” approach, inspired by an original experiment done by Dr. Ellen Langer in 1979. The goal? To see if thinking younger could make them feel and even function younger.

Here’s the Setup:

• The Experiment Group: People on a “1989 vacation” in full retro style, complete with music, movies, and decor.

• Active Control Group: Same retreat, same fun activities, but no pretending about the year.

• No Treatment Group: People at home doing their usual routines.

The idea behind this setup is that by pretending it’s a past era, participants might adopt a younger mindset, one less bound by stereotypes about “getting old.” Think of it like giving the brain a mini-vacation from those “old” labels!

What They Measured:

Researchers assessed everyone on physical, mental, and emotional health markers – things like memory, flexibility, mood, and even perceived age (as in, how old they looked!). They checked in before, right after, and at six and twelve months post-retreat to see if the effects lasted.

Why This Matters:

For a long time, society’s view of aging has been all downhill – less sharpness, more aches, etc. But research increasingly shows that mindset can have real effects on health. If you see aging as an inevitable decline, you might live out that expectation. But what if we approached it with more optimism? For some people in the original Counterclockwise experiment, changes weren’t just “in their heads” – they saw improvements in memory, flexibility, and even physical appearance!

So, Can You Really “Think Yourself” Younger?

While aging isn’t all in your head, this study suggests that a positive mindset and breaking out of age-related stereotypes can make a difference. And while you might not have a full-on ‘80s retreat on your schedule, even small changes in how you see yourself could lead to a fresher, healthier perspective on aging.

As we look to the future, studies like this may help redefine “growing old” – not as a countdown to decline, but as an era full of new possibilities.

Check out the study here!

⏳Politics

We love learning about more our readers. Tell us who you voted for- we promise we wont share it at Thanksgiving dinner.

📚Study of the week:

Why it’s become harder to project presidential winner on election night.

Election night in 2000 stands as a pivotal moment in broadcast news, marking a shift in how results are reported and understood. Early exit polls suggested a tight race between Vice President Al Gore and Texas Governor George W. Bush. At around 8 p.m., NBC News called Florida for Gore, with other networks quickly following suit. However, as more votes were counted, projections shifted. By 2 a.m., networks pivoted to declare Bush the winner, only to retract this once again when a recount loomed.

Reflecting on this night, Stephen Ansolabehere, Frank G. Thompson Professor of Government, notes that the media’s challenges stemmed from relying on outdated statistical models that couldn’t fully capture the nuances of the election process. In 2005, Ansolabehere joined CBS News as part of a team focused on refining data journalism and election forecasting. “I’ve been involved ever since for every major election,” he said, bringing both expertise and a keen eye for the “cool problem” of real-time forecasting.

The Challenge of Election Night Forecasts

The challenge, Ansolabehere explains, lies in piecing together election results as they come in, often only seeing a fraction of the final outcome. “It’s a forecasting problem,” he notes, requiring insight into turnout, vote shares, and demographic voting trends. The complexity has only grown with the rise of absentee voting, which has surged from just one in eight ballots in 2000 to over 60% during the COVID-19 pandemic.

How Absentee Voting Complicates Projections

The increase in absentee voting presents unique challenges. Traditional data models were based on precincts, which report at a granular level. Absentee ballots, however, are typically reported at the broader county level, complicating the ability to predict outcomes in diverse areas. Ansolabehere’s team observed, particularly in the 2020 election, that absentee ballots often leaned heavily Democratic, further skewing early results until in-person votes were added to the mix.

As results poured in from counties with heavy urban populations like Maricopa (Arizona) and Clark (Nevada), the team had to refine models on the fly, using state legislative districts to interpret early data.

Election Night 2024: What’s on the Radar

Heading into the 2024 election, Ansolabehere’s team is already monitoring absentee ballot return rates by party registration, a critical metric in swing states. On election night, the first major indicator will be the exit poll data released at 5 p.m. If Democrats aren't leading by at least five points in this data, it could be a sign of challenges ahead, as Ansolabehere points out that exit polls have historically overstated Democratic support.

Ultimately, Ansolabehere’s insights offer a window into the complexities of election forecasting, underscoring the evolving role of absentee ballots and the need for models that can quickly adapt to the changing landscape of American elections.

Read more here.

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